Economy
Explore: Wealth Planning Economy Markets Founder’s Perspectives Books Published
John Merrill, Tom Bruce, December 2, 2024
U.S. economic growth was a solid 2.8% in the third quarter and is tracking 2.7% in the fourth quarter. Growth between 2% and 3% might be termed a “Goldilocks” economy – not too hot, and not too cold.
John Merrill, Tom Bruce, November 4, 2024
This economic cycle has outperformed almost anyone’s expectations. Over the past two years, the economic outlook has gone from an almost certain recession all the way to a debate between steady economic growth (around 2%) or exceptional growth (closer to 3%).
Quarterly Economic Overview & Outlook
John Merrill, Tom Bruce, October 2, 2024
Review. The U.S. economy has shown persistent growth since the bottom of the pandemic shock.
Outlook. Economic growth will likely remain solid in the coming quarters as it picks up additional strength from lower interest rates.
Global Outlook. For the past two years, global growth has leaned heavily on U.S. growth as we have been the “island of prosperity” in an otherwise anemic growth world.
John Merrill, Tom Bruce, September 2024
The U.S. economy has slowed from the torrid pace of last year and many think it will continue to slow to either a “soft landing” (positive but below 2% growth) or a “hard landing” (recession). While either remains possible over the next 6-12 months, a third alternative is “no landing”, a continuation of growth at 2% or above.
John Merrill, Brian Merrill, Tom Bruce, August 2024
The advance estimate of U.S. Real GDP showed the economy grew by a robust 2.8% in the second quarter. Consumer spending, the most significant economic driver, showed renewed strength with an increase of 2.3%.
Quarterly Economic Overview & Outlook
John Merrill, Brian Merrill, Tom Bruce, July 2024
Review. Our economy enjoyed robust annualized growth of over 4% in the second half of last year. It slowed considerably in the first quarter of this year to a 1.4% rate.
Outlook. Over the next 6-12 months, how the opposing forces within our economy evolve could lead toward two distinctly different paths, either a “soft landing” or potentially a “hard landing” (recession).